![]() This is the best event we have had in the last year and a half hands down! It's almost impossible to get male athletes to come out and have fun with us & this is the first event in years that has brought them out to have fun and dance and bring the community together. No matter what your needs College Lip Sync Battle will have your students singing and dancing all night long. Talk to our team about theming the party to include LED party favors, the blue LED party heads, glow items or even a fun theme. The event is perfect for daytime, late-night, and special events. Students will have a chance to win the the College Lip Sync Golden Microphone Trophy! In-between the performances our College Lip Sync Battle DJ will play the top music, lead line dances, and keep the party moving. Students can chose from fun props brought by our CLSB team! Students who want to participate sing and Battle it out! Students participate by clapping for their favorite "Lip Syncers!" or have student judges use our scorecards. ![]() Then our College Lip Sync Battle DJ spins the track. Perfect for both virtual and live events on campus!įrom the creators of Salsa Magic, Shut Up Just Dance, College Selfie & Dance Like Magic as Seen at over 575+ campuses comes the Ultimate Party Experience your students will love! College Lip Sync Battle gives your students a chance to sing their hearts out!įirst, Students text in their Lip Sync Battle Requests.Students compete in a fun College Lip Sync competition and Dance, Dance, Dance!.Up to 3 fun show options that will have students wanting more!.Student compete for $100 & the Golden Mic Trophy!.Students can choose fun virtual backgrounds.Fun lip sync competition with text-in requests.
0 Comments
You will see by my images that there are two libraries in it. For example, I created a backup plan for my photos. Here’s something else to think about – Get Backup Pro 3 creates incremental backups, which significantly reduces the backup size thanks to copying only new files to the backup that were present at the time of the original backup. ![]() ![]() This can really help the backup challenged, like myself. You also have the option of scheduling the backups. One of the features that is really nice about this app is that you can save the backup plans and run them again whenever you like. Once the backup has finished processing, you are ready to start a new backup. Since the big reason I want to use this software is to clean up my existing hard drive, I want the files saved elsewhere. There are a lot of options out there that arbitrarily save the file somewhere on your hard drive. This is probably my favorite feature of the entire utility. A dialogue window opens and you can select where you want the backup to be saved. Once you have everything you want to save in the backup, you click on the play button, which starts the batch process. You click on the ‘+’ to add files, folders, or even apps to the backup. This is actually the option I used the most while testing. When you first open the app, you will see a simple window that has four menu options. It has a very user-friendly interface and is incredibly intuitive. Get Backup Pro 3 really takes the guess work out of archiving. For me, it’s a matter of taking the time to organize as well as backing up. ![]() These updates can cause data to be lost in the process so it’s always a good idea to plan on backing up before you update. There are so many times that Mac users don’t take the time to backup their files before upgrading operating systems or even just some specific apps. Get Backup Pro 3 is an advanced backup software designed to help users keep their data safe (users have the option to encrypt backup archives as AES-128, AES-256, Blowfish, and Triple DES). Fortunately, there are software developers out there who create solutions like Get Backup Pro 3 to help people like me. And, I have more than one location for back-ups. As organized as I like to think I am, I ultimately find myself saving files erratically and then I struggle to find them later. If there is one thing I struggle with it’s backing up my system. Get Backup Pro 3 Mac App utility helps with organizing your data for archiving. ![]() ![]() We also highlighted the most important specs for each, like top speed, weight, and capacity. The price is relatively affordable too Credit: Abriah Wofford Best for Commuting Segway Ninebot S 540 at Amazon 64 OVERALL SCORE Fun Factor 5.0 Outdoor Capabilities 9.0 Support 7. It is stable, with large foot pads, making it comfortable and easy to maneuver. It features LED lighting on the wheels as well as a remote control for music listening while driving. The Hover-1 Chrome 2.0 impressed us as one of the most fun hoverboards to ride. The Hover 1 Chrome is a stylish hoverboard with built-in Bluetooth speakers and chrome embellishments. Every hoverboard we feature has an average customer rating of at least 4 stars, and we judged each for safety and overall design, plus nice-to-have extras as mentioned above. Hover-1 Chrome Electric Hoverboard: Best For Moderate Users. We reviewed hundreds of the most up-to-date models on the market, keeping in mind everything from budget to intended age range for each. Hover-1 Drive Electric Hoverboard 7MPH Top Speed, 3 Mile Range, Long Lasting Lithium-Ion Battery, 6HR Full-Charge, Path Illuminating LED Lights Jump to Shop DRIVE HOVERBOARD - 6. Hoverboards are a great way to get kids excited about spending time outdoors, but as with any mobility gadget, like scooters, bikes, and even roller blades, you’ll want to make sure the child is old enough to maneuver the device without risking injury. The battery is a 36-volt lithium-ion battery that takes up to 4.5 hours to fully recharge. This electric scooter can handle 15-degree hill inclines. Hover-1 Ranger + Electric Hoverboard, 9MPH Top Speed, 9 Mile Range, Long Lasting Li-Ion Battery, 4HR Full Charge, Built-In Bluetooth Speaker, Rider Modes: Beginner to Expert, Black. That gives it a nice amount of power, especially for climbing hills. Other key features, such as battery life, charging time, and product weight, along with fun features like Bluetooth speakers and LED lights, can also factor in, depending on how you plan to use your new ride. The Hover-1 Titan is built with dual 250-watt motors, for a total of 500 watts. Where you’re planning on riding will also matter, as certain models with plastic wheels make for great options on paved roads, while others with inflatable tires can handle the rugged terrain that comes with off-roading. ![]() For example, some models are designed specifically for kids with weight limits that top out around 150 pounds, while others are designed for a larger rider. Hoverboards are a newish technology with a bit of a learning curve-including knowing what to look for when buying one. That means wearing a high-quality helmet (look for ones with MIPS technology), along with elbow and knee guards. Hoverboards are just like skateboards, scooters, and bicycles when it comes to essential protective gear. Some models can be a little jerky at times, especially at lower. The Hover-1 Helix Electric Hoverboard, Galaxy offers a stable ride. If you’ll primarily be using your hoverboard on stable surfaces, like city sidewalks, a smooth ride may be more important. Before we dive in, your first consideration should be how to ride safety. /rebates/2fip2fHover-1-Rebel-Kids-Hoverboard-w-LED-Headlight-6-m-Max-Speed-130-lbs-Max-Weight-3-Miles-Max-Distance-Black2f810820253&. Typically, this type of hoverboard will have 400-watt dual motors and 30 larger wheels. ![]() The cab-driver, who at once saluted him with the hiss of a serpent, might be that very Phaethon who had set this happiness in motion twelve months ago. The Crossword Solver found 30 answers to 'Helios, for one', 6 letters crossword clue. He had changed the ancient Greek myth to his own purpose and meaning: Phaethon, the young son of Helios, who stole his father's chariot and, in ambitious audacity, attempted to drive the sun across the sky, did not perish, as he perished in the myth.Īll were caught and held, like Phaethon, by some powerful magic that imposed a quiet if not always a peaceful slumber. Helios, for one Crossword Clue Upon examining the given clues, we have managed to identify a total of 1 possible solutions for the crossword clue Helios, for one. He was forty-three years old and it was the opening night of Phaethon, an opera he had written at the age of twenty-four. She thought of Dr Herschbinder’s planet Phaethon, wrecked by smelly bombs. Please make sure the solution we have below matches the one you have in your game. In front of each clue we have added its number and position on the crossword puzzle for easier navigation. ![]() If you are done solving this clue take a look below to the other clues found on todays puzzle in case you may need help with any of them. This puzzle was last seen on Novemin the popular Eugene Sheffer Crossword puzzle. CSIMIAMI ads This clue was last seen on NYTimes DecemPuzzle. Half of Phaethon got blasted into asteroids, Major … uh, General, and the rest raced off towards Saturn. We found 1 possible answer matching your crossword clue: Mother of Helios. Thelma gazed up at Phaethon behind glass high at the top of the column. Up at those topmost windows, Phaethon would then transform the column into a genuine Pharos - one designed to lure lost navigators with its beacon and its bait, wrecking them below. Find clues for helio's, for one or most any crossword answer or clues for crossword answers. Search for crossword clues found in the Daily Celebrity, NY Times, Daily Mirror, Telegraph and major publications. ![]() There her tribe awaited her: butterfly-winged Icara, flaring Phaethon, the truly reborn Harry Fullerton, Hacker the garage owner and thirty-odd more, all waiting to be pitted against the first tribe. Answers for helio's, for one crossword clue, 6 letters. In a reverse of the usual yogic progress over beds of hot charcoal, Phaethon left charred footsteps where he trod. If you’d like to learn more, please visit this link.BIG Power Yoga Denver is our Colorado location, established in 2017. Fish and Wildlife Service with $2 so more endangered wetlands can be saved. Every $1 donated will be matched by the U.S. The Wood Brothers have partnered with American Friends of Canadian Conservation so that $1 per ticket will support The Nature Trust of British Columbia (NTBC) in their efforts to conserve ecologically-rich wetlands and protect irreplaceable land from development. Ask The Wood Brothers, though, and they'll tell you to expect the unexpected. Perhaps that's to be expected from a group whose willingness to experiment has earned acclaim from Rolling Stone and NPR, as well as an annual touring schedule of sold-out music halls and theaters on both sides of the Atlantic. Arriving on the heels of 2019's Live at The Fillmore, 2020's Kingdom In My Mind, and Oliver Wood's solo album Always Smilin' - all of which were released on Honey Jar Records, the band's independent label - Heart is the Hero is bold, bright, and singularly creative, a fully realized collective effort ultimately greater than the sum of its parts. That sense of exploration pumps its way through Heart is the Hero like lifeblood. "Sometimes, the only way to do that is to get weird." "There's still acoustic guitar, upright bass, and percussion on this album - things people use all the time - but we're always thinking, 'How can we make this sound like us, but not like something we've already done?'" Oliver says. An acoustic-driven album that electrifies, Heart is the Hero is stocked with songs that target not only the heart, but the head and hips, too. Recorded analog to 16-track tape, this latest effort finds its three creators embracing the chemistry of their acclaimed live shows by capturing their performances in real-time direct from the studio floor with nary a computer in sight. That evolution continues with Heart is the Hero, the band's eighth studio album. For the better part of two decades, they've cemented their reputation as freethinking songwriters, road warriors, and community builders, creating a catalog of diverse music and a loyal audience who've grown alongside them through the years. The Wood Brothers have learned to trust their hearts. Washington's and 105.5 The Colorado Sound Presents The Wood Brothers with Ida Mae On Look Long they’ll find a creative partnership certain of its bearings, forging a way forward. As one bar band once put it, “We go to the doctor, we go to the mountains…we go to the Bible, we go through the work out.” For millions, they go to the Indigo Girls. ![]() ![]() ![]() In our often-terrifying present, we are all in search of a daily refuge, a stolen hour or two, to engage with something that brings us joy, perspective, or maybe just calm. To hear those collective voices raise into one, singing along and overpowering the band itself, one realizes the importance Indigo Girls’ music has in this moment. “While our lyrics and writing approach may change, our passion for music feels the same as it did when we were 25-years-old.” “As time has gone on, our audience has become more expansive and diverse, giving me a sense of joy,” she adds. “We joke about being old, but what is old when it comes to music? We’re still a bar band at heart,” says Saliers. Their latest record, Look Long is a stirring and eclectic collection of songs that finds the duo of Amy Ray and Emily Saliers reunited in the studio with their strongest backing band to date. They are co-founders of Honor the Earth, a non-profit dedicated to the survival of sustainable Native communities, Indigenous environmental justice, and green energy solutions. Rolling Stone describes them as the “ideal duet partners.” Committed and uncompromising activists, they work on issues like immigration reform (El Refugio), LGBTQ advocacy, education (Imagination Library), death penalty reform, and Native American rights. ![]() Over a thirty-five-year career that began in clubs around their native Atlanta, Georgia, the multi-Grammy-winning duo of Emily Saliers and Amy Ray has recorded sixteen studio albums, sold over 15 million records, and built a dedicated, enduring following across the globe. Released in 1989, Indigo Girls' eponymous major label debut sold over two million copies under the power of singles “Closer to Fine” and “Kid Fears” and turned Indigo Girls into one of the most successful folk duos in history. It is an outdoor event, please prepare accordingly. This event is hosted at New Belgium Brewing Company (500 Linden Street, Fort Collins). Washington's & 105.5 The Colorado Sound Presents Indigo Girls with Garrison Starr ![]() Add them to other game features like Shop and Level editor, where different players have already created thousands of other levels and published them for access, and you will get the game of a dream. Coolmath Gear T-Shirts, Hoodies, Mugs & More!Choose any of two modes of RUN Unblocked: Explore mode and Infinite mode. On most browsers, the puzzles will break up into different shaped pieces each time you hit reload (refresh) on your browser. They will click in if you have them in the right spot. …Run 2 Easy Medium Hard 00:00 JIGSAW PUZZLE INSTRUCTIONS: Use your mouse to drag and drop the puzzle pieces into place. Action Games Subway Surfer Games Shopping Games Adventure Games Cooking and Restaurant Games. Enjoy these cool games without downloading, works on mobile as well. With each running for you more and more opportunities come off. The road is very dangerous and difficult, it conceals in itself unpredictable obstacles which are required to be overcome during all game. Run 2 unblocked - the little man running in a labyrinth tries to get out to freedom and only you will be able to help with it to it. That said, the fun is still there.Playing. The images can show the game’s story, but sometimes it can be violent. Its 2D cartoon design makes the game fun, especially for those who just want to hit the opponent. Bumping into walls will cause the screen to rotate – use this to your advantage! How to Play Left and Right keys to move side-to-side Up key or Spacebar to jump Run 3 Game Is an uncensored game where a ninja and a knight fight with their swords. ![]() Avoid falling through the holes and traps as you run across the levels. Often people in college will sell items they are bored with or no longer have time for at a drastically reduced price.Run 3 is an intense endless running game that involves navigating a little grey alien as it traverses through space. Yard sales are sometimes good sources of things that people do not want. unblocked games run There are unblocked games run many other ways that you can get a wholesale cost on a Game Boy advance. With your every test play, the game editor will provide you with gameplay rout information, to. This version of the game, RUN Unblocked, gives you a chance to create your own levels: use several types of tiles, changing their size and color, and other obstacle tools to create unique experience, and then use option to test your won-made game. Some of the games worth trying are the Slope, Run 3, Swamp Attack, Angry Birds, Gold Digger, and Basketball Legends. Besides the search bar, the games featured are grouped alphabetically. Run unblocked games Here are the best unblocked game websites you can access right now: Unblocked Games 66 EZ Unblocked Games 76. ![]() Head & Shoulders is the worlds number 1 shampoo brand (P&G calculation based on shampoo category yearly external sale) and cares for the planet: Recyclable bottle (excluding cap and depending on recycling facilities). Menthol Anti Dandruff Shampoo cleans with a menthol fresh feeling while keeping hair beautifully moisturised. Its advanced formula is dermatologically tested, pH balanced and boosted with antioxidants for gentle care of hair and scalp and gives up to 100% flake free, clinically proven (with regular use). Overall, Karen says a holistic approach to combating dandruff is key to a flake-free scalp and healthy-looking hair.Head & Shoulders anti dandruff Shampoo targets the root cause of dandruff, for up to 72h protection from flakes dryness and itch (visible flakes, with regular use itch due to dandruff). The largest dandruff flake I have ever pulled out from my scalp. "The best way to treat dandruff is with dandruff care products formulated with an active ingredient like pyrithione zinc that addresses dandruff, redness, itching, and irritation," Karen says. Karen recommends pairing it with other scalp care products like a moisturizing scalp mask that can help soothe and nourish the scalp with natural ingredients. "It comes down to price, access - how easy it is to obtain and find - and scalp type," he says.Īlthough there can be some trial and error in finding a shampoo that works well for your scalp, a shampoo with pyrithione zinc is a good place to start since it's widely available and well-tolerated in most people. ![]() ![]() There's no way to know ahead of time what dandruff shampoo will work for you, so it's best to start with products that are easy to come by and work for most people. Olive Oil: Massage your scalp with olive oil for 10 minutes and leave it on overnight. When choosing a dandruff shampoo, be practical, Del Campo says. With Natural Methods Fenugreek Seeds: Soak 2 tablespoons of fenugreek seeds overnight and grind them into a paste. Ketoconazole has another benefit for people suffering from hair loss: It can contribute to hair regrowth, Del Campo says. Like selenium sulfide, ketoconazole is available both over-the-counter and in prescription strength. It slows the growth of yeast, stopping further symptoms of dandruff. K etoconazole: Ketoconazole is an antifungal treatment that gets to the root cause of severe dandruff: excessive yeast, says Del Campo. It's important to talk with your doctor if using a product containing this ingredient since it can cause dryness or burning on the scalp, Del Campo says. Shampoos with selenium sulfide are available over-the-counter or in a more potent prescription form. "It helps to break down the excessive flakes while also using anti-inflammatory effects to decrease the itching on the scalp," Del Campo explains. It can help control the itching and remove flakes and scales that can irritate the scalp, without the rotten-egg smell associated with sulfur. Selenium sulfide: Selenium sulfide is a sulfur-derived product. However, salicylic acid can cause irritation and dry skin if it's used too often, so if it makes your symptoms worse, discontinue use, says Del Campo. Having your body more readily shred the irritated skin can help control symptoms. "It can also help to promote healthier skin sloughing, which is often out of balance on the scalp with dandruff." ![]() "Salicylic acid can be a powerful aid in clearing away both the buildup that Malassezia feeds on and the waste the fungus produces that can contribute to irritation, which leads to flaking," Karen says. Whereas Pyrithione zinc helps remove the yeast, salicylic acid helps remove the buildup that happens when you have excess yeast on your scalp. Salicylic acid: Salicylic acid is another common active ingredient in dandruff shampoos. Coal tar works by slowing down the rate at which your scalp skin cells die and flake off. "Think of it as you would a face wash and acne - you don't need to have acne to practice good skincare, and in fact, it's good to get ahead of issues by having a solid skin - and in this case, scalp - care routine." Most popular ingredients found in dandruff shampoosĭepending on what you need, here's a list of ingredients to look for when shopping for dandruff shampoos:Ĭoal tar: Coal tar has anti-inflammatory and antimicrobial properties, which has made it a go-to treatment for itchy, inflamed scalps for at least 100 years. "In general, over-the-counter treatment options aim to either decrease the underlying inflammation, to remove and reduce the flakes from the skin, or to target the yeasts that form dandruff," he says.Īnyone can use a dandruff shampoo whether or not they have dandruff, says Julie Karen, MD, a dermatologist with CompleteSkinMD and dermatological advisor to Jupiter in New York City. ![]() The consequences of using illegal movie streaming websites can be severe, and it is important for users to be aware of the risks involved. ![]() However, it is important to use reliable and legal sources for streaming movies and TV shows to avoid security risks and legal consequences. With the controversy surrounding XMovies8, many alternatives have emerged, including Putlocker, 123movies, and Popcorn Time. Despite its popularity, the website faces numerous legal challenges due to its violation of copyright laws. In conclusion, XMovies8 is a controversial online movie streaming platform that is infamous for its association with illegal activities. The MPAA and other industry groups actively monitor and pursue individuals who use these websites, and users can face fines and even jail time for their actions. Not only are users at risk of downloading malware and viruses, but they are also at risk of legal action. Using XMovies8 or any other illegal movie streaming websites can have serious consequences. This highlights the importance of using reliable and legal sources for streaming movies and TV shows online. Users who visit the site are at risk of downloading malware or being infected with viruses. These websites offer similar services to XMovies8, including free streaming of movies and TV shows, and have become popular among users looking for an alternative to the controversial XMovies8.ĭue to its association with illegal activities, XMovies8 is often associated with security concerns. Some of the most popular alternatives include Putlocker, 123movies, and Popcorn Time. With the controversy surrounding XMovies8, many alternatives have emerged in recent years. Despite these legal challenges, the website remains popular among users due to its vast selection of movies and TV shows and ease of use. The website is considered to be a “pirate site” by many industry groups and has faced numerous legal challenges. XMovies8 has faced significant controversy due to its association with illegal activities. This has led to numerous legal challenges from the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) and other industry groups. XMovies8 is accused of violating copyright laws by allowing users to stream copyrighted movies and TV shows for free. Despite its popularity, the website faced numerous legal challenges due to its association with illegal activities. The website quickly gained popularity among users due to its vast selection of movies and TV shows and ease of use. XMovies8 was launched as a free alternative to paid movie streaming services. ![]() In this article, we will examine the history of XMovies8, its legal challenges, and why it is considered a controversial platform. Despite its popularity, the website is considered illegal by many industry groups and faces numerous legal challenges. 'A Tale of Two Markets: Investigating the Ransomware Payments Economy'. Research Read research published based on Ransomwhere data: Oosthoek, Kris, Jack Cable, Georgios Smaragdakis. XMovies8 is an online movie streaming platform Capitalmcsweeney that offers users a vast selection of movies and TV shows for free. Ransomwhere is a partner of Chainabuse, a multi-chain community platform to report cryptocurrency hacks, scams, and fraudulent activity, including ransomware. ![]() I welcome your counsel, and your friendship. Though with your help, we will drive them back. Clawing their way in.ĭroman Aliothe: Aye. I see many shadows tearing at its fringes. Ysera: But Ardenweald, too, is under threat. We serve the cycle, and the Queen guides us. You've been recruited from the slums of Paris into the Secret du Roi, Louis XV's league of. It's entirely text-based, without graphics or sound effects, and fueled by the vast, unstoppable power of your imagination. Chaudron, where your choices control the story. Ysera: The longing in your voice speaks of loss.ĭroman Aliothe: My world was shattered beneath the hammer of the Burning Legion. If It Please the Court is a 242,000 word interactive lesbian romance novel by D.E. And yet, in my dreams I still soar above Azeroth.ĭroman Aliothe: You are bound to the Queen, and to Ardenweald, just as I am. ![]() Ysera: I feel a profound connection to this realm. This dialogue can be prompted both during and after turning in this quest. If you speak to Ysera, you can to the following conversation. Know that you have gained an ally in me, and in Ardenweald. Winter Queen: Your path leads onward, mortal. Yet, one that must be made for the good of the cycle. The court fee of 50 yuan is halved to 25 yuan, which shall be refunded to Yang Jun by the court. though we have precious little anima to save our waning groves. Therefore, in accordance with Article 216 of the 'Interpretation of the Supreme Peoples Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the Peoples Republic of China', it is hereby ruled that Yang Juns lawsuit is dismissed. The drought has caused the Heart to wither. That the Banished One would remain forever bound. Winter Queen: Long ago, we drew upon its magic to ensure the Maw would be inescapable. and to the protection of the realms beyond. Winter Queen: The Heart of the Forest is vital to Ardenweald. As usual, content depends on your average ilvl, seems to be capped at 187 or somewhere around m+2 (at least, this is the highest I got). That will finish This Storyline and you will reach Awaken, Ardenweald.Ĭomment by glacialhawkIn case you want to read it altogether, here's the dialogue that occurs during this quest with significant actions in. Return to Oribos to speak with Tal-Inara 48.8 60.8 on top level. Then go to Heart of the Forest to speak with Winter Queen 49.3 33 Speak with Winter Queen and wait until the conversation is over. Travel to 45.3 61.8 Then Movie will start. Speak with Lady Moonberry and start your escort Ysera's wildseed. First kill 20 mobs then speak with Droman Aliothe then will be animation. Use Droman's Hunting Horn in 3 location Horn Sounded at North Road 60 48.8 - Horn Sounded at West Road 58 55.4 - Horn Sounded at East Road 62.2 55.5 To find them use Eyes of the Forest ( will be on your extra bar ) on small purple fog. I present Awaken the Dreamer part of Awaken, Ardenweald Storyline Quest Chain in Ardenweald ![]() And we get Pr(Z > 1.15) by subtracting Pr(Z ≤ 1.15) from 100% Z = +1.15 is a value we can lookup on the table. We need to standardize the zero outcome: Z = (0 – 2.3)/2 = -1.150. This must be less that 91.15% because 91.15% includes all the outcomes below zero. What is the probability that this random variable falls between zero and 5.0? This is more like an exam question because we need to think a little:Īssume a random normal variable follows a normal distribution with a mean of 2.30 and a standard deviation of 2.0. Now let’s alter the question a bit in order to test our understanding. For Z = 0, it must be either zero or 0.50. ![]() How can we quickly identify the difference? We can look at the first entry in the table. The difference must be 0.50 because half of the area is negative under the curve is negative in our example, 0.4915 is exactly 0.50 less than 0.9915. Instead of a cumulative probability, the table returns the probability that the standard random normal variable will lie between zero and the critical value. The plot on the right above gives the area under the curve that is between zero and 1.35 some Z value tables employ this format instead. The later function simply makes explicit the zero mean and unit standard deviation. In terms of our original question then, the probability of our random variable returning less than (or equal to) 5.0 is 91.15% and, consequently, the probability of returning greater than 5.0 is 8.85% = 100% – 91.15%. The total area must be 100% because this is a probability distribution. Put another way, and still referring to the plot on the left above, the probability of a standard random normal variable (again, that’s a normal variable with mean of zero and unit standard deviation) resulting in 1.35 or less is about 91.15%, which is the area under the curve to the left of Z(1.35). What does our 91.15% mean? It is the area under the curve to the left of Z(1.35), see graph on the left: The values inside the Z value table are probabilities, so they must lie between 0% and 100% inclusive. The first function says “The probability that X is less than or equal to 5.0 conditional on a mean of X equal to 2.3 and standard deviation of X equal to 2.0.” The second function, Pr(Z ≤ 1.350), reflects the normalization (translation) from the normal X to the standard normal Z, and we don’t need to specify the mean or standard deviation of the Z. Let’s formalize our answer with some notation: We see here that for Z = 1.35, the probability is 0.9115 or 91.15%. Because our Z-value is 1.35, we want to go down the rows until we arrive at 1.3, then we want to go across the columns until we arrive at 0.05. ![]() Below is a typical cumulative Z-value lookup. The Z value of 1.350 means “The value of 5.0 is 1.350 standard deviations above the mean of 2.30.” Now we can use the common Z table to retrieve the associated probability. A standard normal variable has zero mean and variance of one (consequently its standard deviation is also one). The first step is to standardize the given value of 5.0 into a Z value (aka, Z score):Īll we’ve done here is translate a normal variable into a standard normal variable. Parsimony here refers to the normal conveniently has only two parameters, mean and variance. The normal distribution is rarely realistic, but it is popular for learning purposes due to its special properties and what is called parsimony. I hope you noticed the phrase “normally distributed?” It comes up often in exams. Here is same question re-phrased: If an asset’s daily return is normally distributed with mean of 2.30% and daily volatility of 2.00%, what is the probability the asset’s return will be at least 5.0%? The same question could be re-phrased into the language of asset returns. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |